As food commodity prices, especially wheat, continue to soar in the wake of natural disasters, such as the Russian wildfires and devastating floods in Pakistan.
A new food security index published by the risk analysis firm Maplecroft suggests that countries in sub-Saharan Africa will be hardest hit in terms of future food security.
The index evaluates the risks to the supply of basic food items across a number of criteria, including health and nutrition, cereal production and imports, conflict and government effectiveness. Afghanistan is ranked first and then African countries make up the rest of the top ten and account for 36 of the 50 nations classified as most at risk.
On average basic staples such as maize, rice and wheat account for 20 percent of the food consumed in Sub-Saharan Africa. With 85% of wheat consumed in the region imported, higher global food prices have led to higher local food prices and increasing supply problems.
Poor infrastructure, widespread poverty and frequent extreme weather events render Sub-Saharan Africa particularly susceptible to food insecurity. Conflict in countries such as Congo is also a key factor in ongoing food insecurity.
As extreme weather events in Africa are likely to become more frequent and of higher intensity due to ongoing climate change, this situation may only get worse. It would appear that African countries are likely to continue to dominate the food security risk index for some time and businesses with operations and supply chains in Africa should plan for ongoing uncertainty around food and all its related problems, not least geo-political risks.
