Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
Site map|Contact us  

 


Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa
December 2010
Gerald Nelson


East Africa

Burundi
Executive summary
Juvent Baramburiye, Timothy S Thomas, Michael Waithaka, Miriam Kyotalimye

Agriculture is a key sector in the economy of Burundi providing over 90% of employment, income and food for the population. The country remains largely dependent on rain fed agriculture particularly between the intra and inter-cropping seasons. Yet, the farming systems are subject to climate variations and the insufficient rainfall is affecting crops production...

Ethiopia
Executive summary
Habtamu Admassu and Timothy Thomas

General Circulation Models (GCM) projections presented in this paper suggest that there will be major changes in rainfall and temperature over Ethiopia between now and 2050. The country will face challenges of the variable water supply conditions. In addition, mean annual temperature increases of 2.5°C or greater would prompt food prices to increase because of slow expansion of global food capacity relative to growth in global food demand. Differentiated mixes of alternative strategies need to be sought to reduce the vulnerability of the sector. Cooler highlands and wetter areas may be affected by temperature stress and hence wil require special attention because these are very important agricultural areas...

Southern Africa

Tanzania
Executive summary
Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Cooperatives

Challenges from climate change pause vulnerability to a number of sectors, especially on agriculture in most of Sub Saharan Africa countries. Higher temperatures in the tropics and subtropics tend to reduce yields of desirable crops in many places. Rise in temperature tend to promote weed and pest proliferation. Greater variations in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines. Although there will be gains in some crops in some regions of the world, the overall impacts of climate change on agriculture are expected to be negative, threatening global food security. Tanzania recognizes the impact of climate change globally, regionally and at country level. In 1992, Tanzania was elected to chair the conference in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil where international efforts to address climate change challenges began. The Government of Tanzania has entered and signed various international environmental agreements with the intention of safeguarding environment. Tanzania is a member of the East African Community (EAC) and Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), where the agenda of climate change is one of the priority issues. Recently, the EAC drafted the East Africa Climate Change Policy that will guide implementation of climate change issues in the member countries...

Botswana
Executive summary
Peter Zhou, Timothy S Thomas, and Sepo Hachigonta

Since its independence, Botswana has had strong positive economic growth mostly spurred by the mining sector. However the agriculture sector has grown at a more sluggish rate and hence its contribution to Gross domestic Product (GDP) has reduced from 40% in 1966 to just over 1% at present. Despite the slow growth, agriculture remains the mainstay of the rural economy, which makes up about 41.4% of the country's households and offers employment to 30% of the country's employable population...

Lesotho
Executive summary
Patrick Gwimbi, Timothy S Thomas, and Sepo Hachigonta

Food insecurity is endemic to Lesotho, with climatic factors such as rainfall variability being major contributors. Poverty and food insecurity are linked to low agricultural productivity which is aggravated by climate change and variability. Rural households who constitute about 80% of the population in Lesotho are the most vulnerable as they rely on rain fed agriculture for their livelihoods. The challenge for policy makers and researchers is to come up with adaptation strategies that make these communities resilient to challenges posed by climate change...

Mozambique
Executive summary
Genito A Maure, Silene Bila, Timothy S Thomas and Sepo Hachigonta

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization report in 2004, the African continent is highly vulnerable to climate change. The majority of the agriculture producers are small scale farmers with limited economic alternatives to agriculture making them highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. Changes in climate affect rainfall patterns and, therefore, agricultural productivity. Mozambique is no exception, with agriculture being an important sector of the country's economy. About 80% of its population (~21 million) works in the agriculture sector and contribute approximately 20% to gross domestic product (GDP). Twenty of the 128 districts are highly prone to drought, 30 to flooding, and 7 to both risks, which exposed about 43% of the population...

South Africa
Executive summary
Peter Johnston, Timothy S Thomas, and Sepo Hachigonta

The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with global population growth and shift in food preference due to increase in income, threatens food security everywhere...

Swaziland
Executive summary
Absalom M Manyatsi, Timothy S Thomas, Michael T Masarirambi, and Sepo Hachigonta

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) noted in 2007 that one of the effects of climate change is global warming, and most of the warming observed over the last 50 years can be attributed to human induced greenhouse gases. The IPCC reported that unimpeded growth of greenhouse gas emissions is raising average temperatures. The consequences include changes in precipitation patterns, more and more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with global population growth and shift in food preference due to increase in income, threatens food security everywhere...

Zambia
Executive summary
Joseph K Kanyanga, Sepo Hachigonta, Neil Gerald and Timothy S Thomas

The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Zambia, 2007 identifies Agriculture as one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change in the country. NAPA also identifies arable crops, in particular maize as the most vulnerable to climate variability and change due to the evident shortening of the growing season...

Zimbabwe
Executive summary
Francis T Mugabe, Timothy S Thomas, and Sepo Hachigonta

Based on 21 Global Circulation Models (GCM), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections using the A1B green house gas emissions scenarios - suggest that by 2050 average temperature in Africa will increase by 1.5 to 3.1°C, and will continue with the upward trend beyond this time...

West Africa

Benin
Executive summary
E A Lawin, P I Akponikpè, A Jalloh, and Timothy S Thomas

Climate change is considered a worldwide concern. The consequences include changes in precipitation patterns, more and more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and its accelerating pace, combined with global population growth and shift in food preference due to increase in income, threatens food security everywhere. It will disproportionately affect the poor who depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, and have a lower capacity to adapt. Many actions are underway to better understand vulnerability and better adapt to climate change. The main objective of this report is to assess the state of vulnerability of the agricultural sector in the Republic of Benin to climate change and provide basis for informed policy development in order to meet the challenges of climate change in the country. The study focuses on the main food crops (yam, cassava, maize and other roots and tubers) and income as an indicator of vulnerability and resiliency...

Burkina Faso
Executive summary
L Somé, A Jalloh, and T S Thomas

Today, it is undeniable that agriculture is vulnerable to changes in climate manifested in rising average temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, more and more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with global population and shift in food preference due to income growth, threatens food security everywhere. While the general consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly well known, great uncertainty remains about how climate change effects will play out in specific locations. The ultimate goal of this study is to help decision makers and scientists to better understand and anticipate the future impacts of climate change on vulnerable agriculture and households in Burkina Faso. The study adopted as methodology, an approach based on analysis of current data on agriculture and economic development, the modeling of climate change expected by 2050, the use of crop models to assess the impact of climate change on crops yields and productions; modeling of global supply and demand for food in order to predict trends in food prices...

Ghana
Executive summary
D K Nutsukpo, A Jalloh, and T S Thomas

While the general consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly well known globally, great uncertainty remains about how climate change effects will play out in specific locations. To address this, models are used to qualitatively illustrate the range of potential climate outcomes providing information on general trends to assist policy makers consider policy options that could be helpful and robust across the range of possible climate outcomes. The information presented in this report provides opportunity for assessing level of vulnerability of Ghanaian agriculture to climate change. The report also provides information of possible futures using various scenarios with emphasis on population and GDP. Ghanaian agriculture is basically rain-fed with only 4 per cent of the irrigation potential developed (FASDEP II). As the backbone of the national economy, agriculture provides employment to over 50 per cent of the population and over 70 per cent of the national food requirements. Agriculture remains a major source of livelihood for many Ghanaians even though agriculture GDP has been decreasing since 2000. The sector accounted for more than 30 per cent of per capita GDP in 2009...

Top of page   -   Home   -   Contact us   -   Disclaimer
Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network
FANRPAN Remote Access FANRPAN Webmail
Octoplus Information Solutions